analysis 📊Stellar XLM-->>USDT 4H Technical Analysis🚀

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Timeframe: 4-Hour Chart (4H)
Latest market read: 27 July 2025

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🔍 Full Technical Breakdown:

1. Current Market Status

• Current Price: ~$0.4403 USDT

• After a strong parabolic rally from the $0.23 region, XLM has entered a correction phase.

• The price is now consolidating in a key decision zone, just below the major resistance area around $0.45–$0.50.

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2. Support & Resistance Levels

Major Resistance Zones (Red Lines):

• Primary Resistance: ~$0.50 – Strong historical rejection zone.

• Secondary Resistance: ~$0.52 – Long-term key level, acting as a top before the last dump.

Key Support Zones (Green Boxes):

• Short-term support: $0.40 – $0.42 → Currently being tested again.

• Mid-term support: $0.36 – $0.38 → Previous breakout level and potential bounce zone.

• Macro support zone: $0.23 – $0.26 → Where the last bullish impulse began.

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3. Trend Structure

• Short-Term Trend: Sideways / slight bearish pressure due to rejection at $0.50.

• Medium-Term Trend: Bullish as long as the price holds above $0.36.

• Long-Term Trend: Recovering from downtrend; uptrend confirmation only above $0.52.

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4. Candlestick & Pattern Observations

• Currently forming a potential bear flag / descending wedge after the sharp pump.

• Quick liquidity sweep of highs above $0.50 followed by strong rejection – signs of distribution phase.

• Retesting mid-support around $0.42–$0.44 with possible breakdown in progress (watch for reaction).

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5. Volume & Momentum

• Momentum weakening post-surge, visible in thinner candles and smaller wicks.

• Decreasing volume = possible exhaustion of bulls at local highs.

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✅ Suggested Trading Plan:

📈 Bullish Setup (Pullback Long)

• Entry Range: $0.40 – $0.42 (watch for bounce/rejection confirmation)

• Stop Loss: Below $0.38 (clean invalidation)

• Take Profit 1: $0.455

• Take Profit 2: $0.495

• Take Profit 3: $0.52

Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2.5+

📉 Bearish Setup (Short-Term Fade)

• Entry: ~$0.445–0.455 (if rejection confirms)

• Stop Loss: Above $0.465

• Take Profit 1: $0.415

• Take Profit 2: $0.395

⚠️ Only recommended if price clearly fails at resistance with a rejection candle.

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🔍 What Would I Do Now?

Given the chart structure, I'd wait for a retest of the $0.40 area:

• If it holds → long with tight SL.

• If it breaks down → wait for potential long around $0.36 or scalp short with tight invalidation.

Ideal trade? Buy the dip around $0.40 with SL below $0.38 and scale out at resistance zones.

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🧠 Additional Technical Clues

• Overhead Supply Zone: ~$0.50 is extremely strong – expect multiple attempts needed to break.

• Volume Profile Gap: Between $0.36–$0.40 suggests fast moves once price enters.

• Momentum Shift: If XLM forms higher lows around $0.40–$0.42, a leg higher is likely.

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📢 Market Sentiment

• Overall Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bullish

• Retail Psychology: Caution after strong pump; bulls watching for dip buys.

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📝 Reminder

⚠️ This is not financial advice.
Every position should be based on your own technical and fundamental analysis. Always manage your risk and avoid overleveraging.

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📊 4H Timeframe Notice

This analysis is based on the 4-hour chart, ideal for swing traders.
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